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Highlights
Highlights
1- Comprehensive island-scale water-budget shows that population growth not rainfall variabilityis the primary driver of scarcity on Qeshm.
2- Trend scenarios project a sustained decline in per-capita renewable water, pushing the island toward severe stress within two decades without intervention.
3- A ≤40% extraction cap on renewable flows enables viable mixed allocations (municipal–agriculture–industry) while remaining within sustainable limits.
4- Long-term monitoring documents simultaneous groundwater-level decline and rising EC, evidencing coupled quantity–quality stress and heightened seawater-intrusion risk.
5- A practical management toolbox demand restraint and loss control, managed aquifer recharge, fit-for-purpose reuse, and desalination as a quantitative backstop with transparent energy/brine accountingsupports resilient, cost-effective island water security.
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